UFC London: Aspinall/Volkov Draftkings Strategy Review

 UFC London: Aspinall/Volkov Draftkings Recap

The Winner

Sergei Pavlovich 9.0- 40.50%

Tom Aspinall 8.3- 51.45%

Arnold Allen 8.0- 24.07%

Jack Shore 7.6- 54.96%

Muhammad Mokaev 9.1- 27.62%

Makwan Amirkhani 7.7- 17.72%

$49.7k in salary used ($300 remaining)

216.32% Cumulative Ownership

7-way chop for $24,857.14 each

Evaluating Process

    Despite leaving only $300 on the table and using several chalky pieces, this lineup interestingly avoided duplication in a way that has me reconsidering part of my process, since it was impossible for me to get based on my current weekly settings. So, how do we reconcile when this inevitably occurs, shameful tears in the shower? Maybe briefly, but there has to be a line drawn for lineups somewhere. Of course we would like to avoid heavily duplicated lineups, and optimizer settings or sims can help efficiently find lineups avoiding the worst of the dupe trains, but finding the line between avoiding dupes and still running lineups that can legitimately win can be a difficult process.

    Entering last weekend, my parameters start by requiring at least $500 remaining in salary unless there is a fighter projected for under 10% own (allow any salary), and, depending on the slate, can grow from there. I don't usually have any own % requirements, but I will aggressively fade bad chalk at times. Looking over several of my 120 lineups (116 in the $1 mini-max and 4 in the $15) this week, several of my chalkier lineups with $500/600 remaining still carried more dupes than I'd really like (10 or less), yet this winning lineup used less salary and achieved this goal. 

    To dig deeper, let's take a look at how certain lineups did at avoiding dupes: 

    

Lineup	Finishing Position (in $15)	Sum Own	Salary Rem	Dupes in	Dupes in
				$15 Throwdown	$1 Mini-Max
Pavlovich/Mokaev/Aspinall//Allen/Amirkani/Shore	1	211.0%	$300	7	10
Pavlovich/Mokaev/Aspinall/Amirkani/Shore/Craig	73	223.4%	$800	5	10
Pavlovich/Mokaev/Aspinall/Allen/Shore/Craig	189	219.0%	$500	30	38
Pavlovich/Topuria/Aspinall//Allen/Amirkani/Shore	304	227.6%	$100	50	104
Pavlovich/Pimblett/Aspinall//Allen/Amirkani/Shore	485	223.3%	$0	59	128
Pimblett/Mokaev/Aspinall/Allen/Shore/Craig	544	232.5%	$100	238	403*
Pavlovich/Topuria/Aspinall/Amirkani/Shore/Craig	927	239.9%	$600	27	46
Pimblett/Pavlovich/Aspinall/Amirkani/Shore/Craig	954	235.7%	$500	31	66
Pimblett/Pavlovich/Aspinall/Allen/Shore/Craig	1236	243.6%	$200	251	441*
* - One player duped w/ an entire 150 train

    

    Starting with the winner, we can see where certain lineups (Note: all $500 and above are ones I played in the $1) finished along with their sum own, salary remaining, and dupes in both large Draftkings GPP's. The lineups in 304th and 485th are the lineups the winner COULD HAVE made with Topuria or Pimblett instead of Mokaev, and that simple 1 v 1 dropped the dupes from 50 and 59, respectively, down to 7 in the $15. By comparison, the lineups at $500/$600 (all of which I played in the $1) carried more ownership for a reduced potential payout because they brought in what turned out to be Craig 38% chalk play (14-16% higher than projected). At $800 remaining, there were little duplication concerns for the lineup in 73rd staying under 10 in both contests. Of course, this is an incomplete look, but it shows at least some relationship between salary remaining and duplicates, and importantly, that leaving at least some money on the table ($300 or more) should largely avoid the most duplicated -EV lineups.

    So, what does this mean for my process looking forward to Blaydes/Daukaus? In addition to dipping below the $500 threshold on sub-10% own fighters, I will definitely take a longer look at the own %'s to find opportunities similar to the winner to find a lineup that leaves $300/$400 where the field will clearly prefer to select nearby popular plays.

John Huffstetler

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